The tropical regions around the Earth have general weather dynamics pretty much different from the mid-latitude region weather. this means that it can completely suppress the systems but also can lead to a significant amount of storms and hyperactive tropical activity. The most important atmospheric wave for the tropical region is the MJO wave, known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation.īelow are some simplified graphics so we can first learn what exactly the MJO wave is and why is it so an important ingredient and large-scale feature in the tropical region around our planet The atmospheric MJO wave brings a significant influence to the activity during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. We use the term atmospheric waves when we talk about the upper-level support for storms. The two most important ingredients for tropical activity are the very warm oceanic waters fueling the convective storms and strong upper-level support for rising (lifting) motion. OCTOBER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC MJO WAVE The majority of tropical cyclones develop during the Atlantic hurricane season. A virtual region that extends between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean Sea. The oceanic water temperature is also anomalously warmed up across the so-called MDR region (Main Development Region). This is one of the main reasons why the tropical Atlantic has been so hyperactive since early August and continues into early October in this hurricane season.Įxtreme hot oceanic waters are a direct effect we can see with hurricane Sam this week, a rapid to explosive strengthening into a high-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, then maintaining its strength of Category 3 or greater for more than 7 days already. We have prepared a high-resolution video animation above, indicating how the Atlantic basin waters have been warming up over the recent week. These conditions are often found during the final months of the Atlantic hurricane season when seas are the warmest. ![]() Generally, the very warm water temperatures, when combined with strong upper-level pattern support, normally lead to very rapid to even explosive development of tropical cyclones, they become more intense as well. And such temperatures are also forecast to remain in a similar range at least through mid-October. The sea temperatures in this part of the western Atlantic are at extremely high values as seen on the chart above, around 29 to 31 ☌, which is extremely hot for early October. The warmest pockets of sea waters can be found around the Lesser Antilles, Cuba and Jamaica, the Bahamas, and around the southern Florida peninsula. Including the western Atlantic, the Caribbean region, and part of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea temperatures of the Atlantic Basin are still extremely warm than normal this early October, with a strongly positive anomaly of up to 2-4 ☌ or even more in some areas. EXTREMELY WARM CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ARE CONCERNING THROUGH OCTOBER Then, a supplementary list of tropical cyclone names will be needed until the end of the season. Only one name is left, that is Wanda, and could form soon – potentially in the Caribbean late next week. Sam will be traveling to the east of Bermuda this Saturday.Īfter Monday, a gradual turn will bring it into North Atlantic through the mid-next week and transform the hurricane into an intense extratropical cyclone before turning towards Europe.Īlso this week, another Tropical Storm Victor has formed southwest of Cabo Verde, becoming the 20th named tropical cyclone of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2021. ![]() Hurricane Sam remains in still very favorable oceanic and environmental conditions, allowing it to maintain its powerful strength of a Category 4 with around 140-150 mph sustained winds. Sam is the 7th hurricane of the 2021 season for the Atlantic Basin, surpassing the major hurricane Ida and became the most powerful hurricane of the year. IMPORTANT UPDATE: Sam, the Longest-Lived Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2021 Heads Into the North Atlantic, Soon Taking an Extratropical Transition Before Impacting Iceland This Weekĭuring this week, hurricane Sam underwent some extremely rapid intensification of its maximum winds and bottomed out with the central pressure at nearly 930 mbar. Sam will turn into North Atlantic and towards Europe as a powerful extratropical storm next week. ![]() This is the 6th above-average year in a row. The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season still has two months to the official end, but the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has already met NOAA’a above-average season definition. Hurricane Sam remains a powerful high-end Category 4 storm, passing near Bermuda this weekend, driven by extremely warm Atlantic waters and gradually emerging atmospheric MJO wave from the west.
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